Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Price Consolidates as Open Interest Hits $73B

Bitcoin continues to consolidate near $113,000 after facing resistance around $116,000. The leading cryptocurrency shows signs of resilience despite recent rejection from higher levels. Short-term technical indicators reveal a tightening price range, while derivatives data points to increasing speculative activity across major exchanges.

Market Structure and Key Technical Levels

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart indicates a narrow trading zone between $112,500 and $114,900. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $112,515 serves as immediate support, while resistance lies around the 0.5 retracement at $114,924. The 0.618 level near $117,600 remains the next upside target if momentum strengthens.

Additionally, the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages sit close to current levels at $112,350 and $113,103, respectively. This confluence underscores a critical battle between bulls and bears.

Decisive move above $113,400, aligned with the EMA20, could invite further upside pressure. Conversely, failure to hold the $112,300 zone might trigger a drop toward $110,300 or even $108,000 if selling intensifies.

Derivatives Signal Rising Speculation

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has surged to $73.52 billion as of late October, compared with under $20 billion earlier this year. This sharp increase reflects growing leveraged positions and heightened market participation. Moreover, such expansion often precedes volatility spikes as traders take larger directional bets.

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The correlation between open interest and Bitcoin’s spot price suggests that investors are positioning for major movements. While higher leverage may indicate confidence in bullish continuation, it also raises the risk of sharp liquidations if prices fluctuate rapidly. Hence, the next few sessions could witness larger intraday swings as momentum builds.

Exchange Flows Indicate Cautious Accumulation

Bitcoin’s inflow and outflow data show alternating patterns throughout 2025. Significant outflows earlier in the year indicated profit-taking and reduced reserves on exchanges. However, from June onward, rising inflows have coincided with renewed price rallies, suggesting institutional accumulation.

As of October 29, exchanges recorded a net inflow of $32.26 million, hinting at steady demand despite price volatility. Frequent inflow surges through October show traders locking profits while keeping positions open for further gains. Consequently, this dynamic highlights cautious optimism among market participants awaiting confirmation of the next breakout phase.

Technical Outlook for Bitcoin Price

Key levels remain clearly defined as Bitcoin consolidates below the $116,000 zone. Upside targets include $114,900 as the immediate resistance, followed by $117,600 and $120,000 if momentum strengthens. A decisive breakout above $117,600 could confirm renewed bullish momentum and open the path toward $123,000.

On the downside, critical support lies between $112,300 and $112,500, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and short-term EMA clusters. Losing this zone may expose deeper supports at $110,300 and $108,000. The 20 EMA at $113,408 remains the short-term pivot, and a sustained close above it could tilt sentiment in favor of the bulls.

The technical structure suggests Bitcoin is consolidating inside a narrowing range, with volatility compression hinting at a potential breakout in the coming sessions. This setup mirrors prior pre-rally phases where accumulation zones preceded impulsive moves.

Will Bitcoin Reclaim $117,000?

Bitcoin’s next move hinges on whether buyers can defend $113,000 and reclaim $114,900 with strong volume. Sustained inflows from institutions and rising open interest above $73 billion indicate growing confidence, but the balance between accumulation and profit-taking remains delicate.

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If bulls regain control and push beyond $114,900, a retest of $117,600 and possibly $120,000 becomes likely. However, failure to hold above $112,300 could trigger a pullback toward $110,000, marking a continuation of consolidation rather than a breakdown.