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Analaysts warn that within 2–8 years, Quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s encryption
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Major tech companies and governments are investing billions in quantum research
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The race is accelerating, and Bitcoin upgrades to quantum-resistant wallets could take 6–12 months, meaning action must start by 2026
Crypto markets have always faced cycles of hype and correction, but a new kind of threat could change everything – quantum computing.
As this technology advances rapidly, experts warn that it could soon challenge the very cryptography that keeps Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies secure. Is the threat as big as it sounds? Let’s explore.
Bitcoin Bear Market Coming Soon?
Crypto analyst Charles Edwards says that he once believed that future Bitcoin bear markets would become milder over time as markets mature. But now, he warns that if the quantum threat is not addressed soon, possibly as early as next year, Bitcoin could face its biggest bear market ever.
I used to think future Bitcoin bear markets would have a lower drawdowns. But if we don’t solve on Quantum next year, we probably get the biggest bear market ever.
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) October 22, 2025
At the Token 2049 event, Edwards discussed the current state of Bitcoin and crypto, highlighting two major threats to the market: treasury exposure and the growing power of quantum computing.
What is the Quantum Threat to Bitcoin Security?
Edwards explained that within 2–8 years, advanced quantum machines might break Bitcoin’s current elliptic curve encryption, and Satoshi’s coins could be dumped into the market.
He noted that major tech companies like AWS, Google, Azure, Microsoft, IBM, and Meta are already deploying quantum systems, and even governments are investing billions to gain an edge.
For example, China is spending twice as much as the U.S., and $55 billion has been committed to quantum industry in recent times.
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Q-Day Could Be Closer Than Expected
Multiple credible sources including McKinsey, suggest that “Q-Day”, the point when quantum computers could break classical encryption, could arrive within the next 2 to 10 years. Moreover, since the RSA encryption is stronger than Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography, Bitcoin could be vulnerable even earlier than these estimates.
According to the 2017 Bitcoin Quantum Paper, only about 2,300 logical qubits would be needed to crack Bitcoin’s elliptic curve encryption. Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of the second largest cryptocurrency believes that there is a 20% chance quantum computers may compromise cryptography by 2030.
Upgrading the Bitcoin network to quantum-secure wallets could take between six months to a year, which means planning and development must start well in advance. Edwards believes that 2026 should be the target year for these upgrades to begin to avoid serious risks.
What Can You Do?
Edwards has encouraged the community to engage with Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs), advocate for upgrades, and raise awareness.
If the quantum threat is not addressed soon, crypto markets could face serious turmoil. The community must act now to secure Bitcoin’s future.
