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US inflation ticked up to 3.0% year over year in September, and futures markets still price a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
Headline CPI printed 3.0% on the year and 0.3% on the month, while core CPI held at 3.0% year over year and 0.2% month over month. Gasoline rose 4.1% on the month and shelter inflation stayed near 3.6%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published on schedule to meet Social Security cost-of-living timelines despite the shutdown backdrop.
Rates traders barely shifted course after the report.
CME Group’s FedWatch shows futures place the probability of a 25 basis point move at the October 29 FOMC above 90%, taking the target from 3.75% to 4.00% today toward 3.50% to 3.75%.
Beyond the immediate meeting, the same FedWatch distribution puts the center of the path near 3% by this time next year.
For the October 28, 2026 meeting, the highest probabilities sit in the 2.75% to 3.25% ranges, with modest tails on either side.
A simple probability-weighted midpoint of that distribution is about 2.97%, which is consistent with a glide from current levels to roughly 3% over the next year.
| Target range (%, Oct 28, 2026) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2.50–2.75 | 17.6% |
| 2.75–3.00 | 29.8% |
| 3.00–3.25 | 28.4% |
| 3.25–3.50 | 14.3% |
| Other bins | 9.9% |
Street road maps and rules-based estimates offer a useful cross-check. Goldman Sachs expects three cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026, which lands the funds rate in a 3.00% to 3.25% range by late 2026.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Simple Monetary Policy Rules dashboard shows a median rules path in the high-3s for 2026 depending on the forecast set, a reminder that sticky components of inflation can keep policy rates above the futures-implied path. The gap between futures and rules creates a hawkish risk to the 3% end-state if core disinflation stalls.
The curve context helps frame how much easing will filter into financial conditions.
Two-year yields have hovered near the mid-3.4% to 3.5% zone and the 10-year near 4%, while 30-year breakeven inflation is close to 2.25%.
A strategist poll compiled by Reuters points to a long end that stays firm around 4.1% to 4.2% over the next 6 to 12 months as term premium and fiscal supply limit declines.
If the back end remains sticky while the front end falls, the curve would steepen, which tempers how “easy” broad financial conditions can get even with policy cuts.
For digital assets, the link back to the policy path now runs through both real yields and fund flows. According to CoinShares, global crypto ETPs saw a record $5.95 billion weekly inflow in early October as Bitcoin set a new high near $126,000, followed by outflows the next week, led by Bitcoin, near $946 million amid higher volatility. We also saw over $19 billion in liquidations after US president Donald Trump altered macro projections by announcing new tariffs on China.
Spot Bitcoin has been consolidating around $108,000 to $111,000 into the CPI and FOMC window. These flow pulses matter for how macro impulses transmit to price, since ETF demand now represents a large share of incremental buying.
Near term, a 25 basis point cut paired with cautious guidance would likely loosen the front end while the 10-year holds near 4%. If the dot plot and statement open a path to a December move as well, the front-end easing would be clearer and the dollar could soften at the margin.
If the Committee pushes back and front-end real rates rise instead, risk assets usually retrace until new data resets the path.
The CPI mix gives the Fed cover to stay on course toward a first cut since gasoline was the main monthly driver, and a retracement in pump prices into October or November would help the headline prints line up with a gradual disinflation story.
Looking toward October 2026, three paths frame the distribution implied by futures and rules.
A base case of slow disinflation keeps core inflation trending lower without a labor shock, the policy rate lands near 2.75% to 3.25%, and real yields drift down as the front end falls.
A sticky-inflation path holds core near or above 3%, the Fed leans more guarded, and the funds rate stabilizes closer to 3.25% to 3.75% with a firmer dollar and intermittent re-tightening of financial conditions, consistent with the Cleveland rules bias.
A growth-scare path delivers front-loaded easing toward 2.25% to 2.75% and a weaker dollar after an initial risk-off phase.
In all cases, Bitcoin’s beta to real yields remains central, and the ETF flow channel adds convexity when conditions ease.
| Path to Oct 2026 | Policy rate range | Macro markers | BTC read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glide and grind disinflation | 2.75%–3.25% | Core cools gradually, 10-year near 4.0%–4.2% | Constructively bullish if real yields edge lower and ETF inflows persist |
| Sticky inflation | 3.25%–3.75% | Core near 3%+, breakevens firm | Range-bound with USD firm and higher real rates |
| Growth scare | 2.25%–2.75% | Unemployment rises, ISM below 50 | Two-step, risk-off then liquidity-driven recovery |
Global cross-winds keep the picture balanced. The ECB has paused after its early-2025 cuts and large banks do not expect more in 2025, which limits a euro-driven dollar decline.
The Bank of England is easing more carefully with UK inflation still above target. In the United States, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and the 10-year TIPS yield remain useful gauges for Bitcoin’s macro beta, as tracked by FRED.
The near-term catalyst is next week’s FOMC decision. Futures show a 25 basis point cut is priced with conviction, and the market-implied endpoint centers on roughly 3% by October 2026.
