As 2025 came to a close, the crypto market went through a sharp reset. Total crypto market capitalization slid to about $2.93 trillion in late December, according to CoinMarketCap. Prices pulled back, leveraged positions were flushed out, and trading activity cooled across derivatives markets. At the same time, on-chain data showed a different trend beneath the surface. Large holders continued to accumulate, even as short-term traders reduced exposure.
This contrast between whale behavior and derivatives positioning is drawing attention. Historically, periods marked by spot accumulation and lower leverage have formed a more stable foundation for longer-term market trends. Current data suggests crypto may be entering such a phase as 2026 begins. That kind of transition is often easy to miss in real time, especially after volatile year-end moves.
Whale Accumulation Signals Long-Term Positioning
On-chain data indicates that large holders have been steadily increasing exposure during recent market weakness. According to data from Glassnode, accumulation metrics show that higher-balance wallets have been adding to positions while smaller cohorts remain cautious.
CryptoQuant data supports this view. The platform tracks “new whale” wallets, typically defined as addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC with relatively young coin age. These wallets saw a rise in supply accumulation through late 2025, suggesting fresh capital entering at lower prices rather than profit-taking.
This behavior often reflects long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation. In past cycles, similar accumulation phases have tended to occur when broader market sentiment was still cautious rather than optimistic. While this does not signal immediate upside, it does indicate confidence in longer-term network value.
Futures Markets Undergo a Leverage Reset
While spot accumulation continued, derivatives markets moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin futures open interest declined sharply toward the end of 2025. Data from CoinGlass shows a notable reduction in open interest across major exchanges following a series of liquidations.
This unwind was paired with a clear shift in funding rates. After extended periods of elevated funding earlier in the year, rates normalized or turned slightly negative in late December. The shift points to aggressive long positioning having largely been cleared from the system.
Lower open interest and neutral funding reduce the risk of cascading liquidations. That dynamic tends to show up repeatedly near market turning points. When leverage resets, price movements are more likely to reflect actual spot demand rather than forced positioning.
Options Markets Reflect Risk Repricing, Not Speculation
Options data further supports the idea that the market has moved into a reset phase. Toward year-end, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a large options expiry, with more than $25 billion in contracts rolling off, according to CoinDesk.
Glassnode’s derivatives data showed that put options were concentrated near downside protection levels, while call options were positioned further out. The positioning leans more toward risk management than outright upside speculation.
Implied volatility also eased following the expiry. Rather than signaling complacency, this points to reduced uncertainty after a period of stress. Options markets appear to be repricing risk in a more balanced way, rather than amplifying leverage.
Institutional and Spot Indicators Add Context
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows provide additional insight into market conditions. Data from Farside Investors shows consistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in the final weeks of December. These flows coincided with broader risk reduction across crypto and traditional markets.
While outflows are often interpreted as bearish, they also reflect portfolio rebalancing and year-end positioning. That distinction matters, particularly when leverage is already coming down rather than building up. Importantly, these outflows occurred alongside declining leverage, not rising speculation.
Futures basis data also points to stress rather than excess optimism. Bitcoin futures briefly traded in backwardation on regulated venues, a condition often linked to hedging demand during periods of uncertainty. Historically, normalization of futures basis has followed such resets, rather than preceded major market tops.
What This Means for Market Structure in 2026
Taken together, the data points to a market that has cooled rather than overheated. That distinction matters, especially after a year dominated by leverage-driven moves. Lower open interest and neutral funding indicate reduced fragility. Options positioning shows risk awareness instead of speculative excess.
This combination has appeared in previous cycles during transition phases. It does not guarantee price appreciation, nor does it signal immediate momentum. However, it does suggest that the market is moving away from leverage-driven behavior and toward a structure supported by spot demand.
Healthier uptrends tend to form after periods of consolidation and deleveraging. The current setup fits that historical pattern more closely than conditions seen during peak speculative phases.
Final Verdict
As 2026 begins, crypto markets appear to be stabilizing after a volatile reset. Large holders continue to accumulate, while derivatives markets show clear signs of reduced leverage and risk recalibration.
These signals do not point to short-term price targets or guaranteed outcomes. Instead, they suggest that the market’s underlying structure may be improving. If spot demand builds on this lower-leverage foundation, the next phase of the cycle could develop on firmer ground than previous speculative rallies. That process tends to unfold gradually, not all at once.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information presented is based on publicly available sources at the time of writing.