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Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $120,367.71 as of press time, near its all-time high of $124,000, driven by expectations of a rate cut and a market structure reset.
Softer US labor signals and a live government shutdown have traders leaning heavily toward another Fed cut this month, lifting risk assets across the board.
At the same time, positioning in crypto has been “cleaned up” after the quarter-end options expiry, with flows and on-chain metrics shifting from defensive to neutral-constructive.
Bitcoin is up approximately 1.5% in the past 24 hours, after briefly reaching $121,000 on futures before slipping back.
Ethereum climbed to $4,477.52, a 3% increase on the daily timeframe, followed by BNB, which surged to $1,084.87 after a 5.7% rise.
Solana advanced to $231.93 after a 4.4% tailwind, and XRP climbed to $3.0674, up by 4% in the past 24 hours. Cardano’s 2.2% daily increase resulted in a $0.8698 price, and Dogecoin secured a 4.2% growth to $0.2596.
Growth catalysts
The macro impulse is straightforward. Private payrolls data showed an unusual decline, pushing Treasury yields lower and increasing the odds of a rate cut.
Glassnode’s Oct. 2 report helps explain why the rally looks steadier than earlier squeezes. They noted that Bitcoin continues to respect the short-term holder cost basis, a line that has acted as support since May.
Meanwhile, the price competes with a dense supply band ranging from $114,000 to $118,000. Crucially, long-term holder distribution is easing and ETF inflows have resumed, which together imply stabilizing demand rather than a one-off spike.
Sentiment gauges like the Short-Term Holder Realized Value (RVT) and the Fear & Greed Index have cooled, consistent with a period of consolidation rather than capitulation.
In derivatives, the record expiry last week reset positioning. As open interest rebuilds in the fourth quarter, implied volatility has softened, skew is drifting toward neutral, and the term structure remains in contango with a firmer back end.
Overall, the report characterized the backdrop as neutral but constructive, waiting on a catalyst for the “next decisive move.” That backdrop aligns with macroeconomic tailwinds. Shutdown uncertainty continues to amplify a “rates trade,” which could also delay some economic releases and keep markets leaning dovish.
To maintain momentum, the crypto market requires a string of positive spot ETF flow prints and clear evidence that BTC can absorb the supply overhang between $114,000 and $118,000 without reigniting long-term holder distribution.
